What the Referendum Told Us, and What Comes Next 

Albertans voted on ten questions on October 19. All five immigration questions passed, and all four constitutional questions were defeated. This article sets out what the results show, what they leave undecided, and what the sector should watch as the next stage begins. It moves from the numbers to the evidence and ends with AAISA’s position. 

What the numbers show 

Each immigration question passed by a majority. Question 5, proof of citizenship to vote in provincial elections, had the widest margin at 58.06 per cent. Question 4, fees, or premiums for non-permanent residents, had the narrowest at 51.78 per cent, a margin of 73,318 votes. Turnout reached 70.4 per cent, up from 60.5 per cent in the 2023 provincial general election. 

All four constitutional questions were defeated. On the separation question, 74.9 per cent of voters chose to remain in Canada. 

Source: Elections Alberta (2026). 

A bundled question carries more than one meaning 

It is important to note that a “yes” to questions with multiple components can reflect support for some parts of the question and not others. For instance, Question 1 bundles increased provincial control, lower immigration levels, and priority for economic migrants in one answer. Angus Reid tested the difference before the vote. 

When it used the government’s wording, 62 per cent said they would vote “yes”. When it asked about the parts separately, 56 per cent supported reducing immigration from current levels, and 58 per cent said economic contribution should come first (CTV News, 2026). 

These findings suggest referendum results should not be interpreted as uniform support for every component of a multi-part question. 

What the questions describe 

Questions 3 and 4 both assume that Canadian citizens and permanent residents will continue to qualify for the programs in question. As worded, those two questions apply to people with non-permanent status. Question 2 leaves its scope to a term the government has not yet defined. 

Eligibility for provincial health coverage already depends on documents. Under the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan, a person must be legally entitled to be in Canada, committed to living in Alberta for at least 183 days in any 12-month period, and not claiming residency elsewhere. Coverage must be revalidated with documents that verify identity, residency in Alberta and legal entitlement to be in Canada (Government of Alberta, 2026). 

Our referendum explainer set out who could vote: Canadian citizens aged 18 or older who live in Alberta (AAISA, 2026). Many people the questions described could not cast a ballot on them.  

What is still up in the air 

The immigration questions are not binding. They change no work permit, study permit, visitor record, or permanent residence application. Each change requires a legal text and a timeline, and it is unclear how the results will inform any changes. 

Question 2 depends on “Alberta-approved immigration status.” The government said it would define that term after the vote. As of this writing, we have not found a published definition. 

Federal ministers said Ottawa already reflects the direction of the questions in its levels plan and is open to discussion with Alberta (CTV News, 2026). 

How does this affect service delivery now 

Five common misconceptions shaped client conversations since the referendum was announced. Each one can be tested against the ballot wording and the rules that apply today. 

Myth 1: Healthcare coverage ends immediately after the vote. Question 4 asks whether to introduce fees. It does not remove coverage on any date.  Any fee would require legislation and implementation, and the questions are not binding. 

Myth 2: Services are denied based on status right away. Question 2 depends on the term “Alberta-approved immigration status,” which has not been defined yet. The questions do not create a legal basis for immediate denial, and the scope of any future change cannot be stated until the definition is defined. 

Myth 3: Children cannot attend school. Question 2 concerns eligibility for provincially funded services, and education is among them. As worded, no question removes a child who is already enroled. Any change to new enrolment would depend on the definition and on the legislation that follows. 

Myth 4: Settlement programs are disappearing. As worded, Question 3 concerns provincial social support programs. It does not address federal settlement programs such as language training and employment services. Any pressure on provincial programs would be a policy choice, not an automatic result of the vote. 

Myth 5: Newcomers should leave Alberta before or soon after the vote. The vote did not change anyone’s immigration status or service eligibility on October 19. A decision to leave should rest on planning and accurate information about what applies today, not on the date of the vote. 

Newcomers and system pressure 

The case for restrictions against newcomers often rests on the claim that newcomer’s strain on public systems. The eligibility rules already in place of test documents, residency and legal status before people receive coverage. A new fee or residency rule would add a second layer of checks on top of the first. 

Each layer costs money to design, staff and run. The government has not published those costs or the savings it expects. There is currently insufficient available evidence that the proposed restrictions would effectively reduce system pressures or generate savings. The absence of a cost estimate does not prove that restrictions would save money, but it does mean the case has not yet been made public. 

Newcomers strengthen Alberta’s communities. Newcomers contribute to Alberta’s workforce, economy, and civic and social life across the province. They work in the province’s hospitals, farms, construction sites, kitchens, and classrooms. They raise children in our communities, start businesses, and serve on community boards.  AAISA will continue to share emerging evidence and sector data that help quantify these contributions. 

What to watch 

The next stage will show whether the mandate becomes policy and how it reaches people. Three signals matter most. 

The first is the government’s definition of “Alberta-approved immigration status,” with the programs it would cover and the cost of administering them. The second is any bill or regulation that uses the language of the questions, including the fee or residency rule and its start date. The third is the federal levels plan, which will set national immigration targets across the country. 

The sector has its own evidence to track. The Report a Hate Incident survey (https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7D6L3NS) , agency intake data and the questions clients bring to settlement staff will show how the referendum period affected newcomers’ sense of safety and their use of services. Settlement workers can help clients by explaining which rules apply to them today and where to get the documents they need, so that people keep their coverage and recognize a change when it arrives. 

Conclusion 

The October 19 vote does not change anyone’s status today. It does not define the term that matters most, and it does not show that newcomers strain Alberta’s systems. As more information becomes available, we will continue to monitor it and update the sector in a timely manner. 

AAISA works to build inclusive, welcoming and engaged communities across Alberta. Newcomers strengthen our province, and we will keep reinforcing messaging and evidence that clearly identifies what all members of our communityies need to thrive.  

For settlement and integration of organizations, the immediate priority stays the same: providing accurate information, supporting newcomer participation and wellness, and observing how future policy developments affect clients and communities. 

References 

AAISA. (2026). Alberta’s October referendum: What it means for newcomers.  https://aaisa.ca/albertas-october-referendum-what-it-means-for-newcomers/ 

Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan. (2026). AHCIP eligibility. Government of Alberta. https://www.alberta.ca/ahcip-eligibility 

CTV News. (2026). Immigration in Alberta: Ottawa, province already in talks, minister says. https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/alberta-referendum/article/immigration-in-alberta-ottawa-province-already-in-talks-minister-says/ 

CTV News. (2026). Poll suggests Alberta referendum wording may overstate support for some proposals. https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/poll-suggests-alberta-referendum-wording-may-overstate-support-for-some-proposals/ 

Elections Alberta. (2026). Referendum official results. Released October 29, 2026. https://www.elections.ab.ca/ 

Gofar Global. (2026). Alberta’s immigration referendum 2026: What it means. https://www.gofarglobal.com/news/alberta-immigration-referendum-2026-what-it-means